Archives for December 2010

U.S. household formations are at their lowest since 1947, data from the Census Bureau show. And that’s helping to keep the supply of unsold homes at near-record levels nationwide, even though relatively few houses are being added to the inventory.

Between March 2009 and March 2010, the number of households rose just 357,000, according to the census data. In the previous 12 months, the number increased only 398,000, the third-smallest increase on record since World War II.

Between 2002 and 2007, before the economy started on its downward trajectory, household formations averaged 1.3 million a year, U.S. census data show.

During normal times, builders need to add about 1.7 million houses a year to meet underlying demand stemming from, among other things, the need for replacement homes and the desire for second homes, as well as conversions from nonresidential to residential uses and increases in the number of households.

For example, about 250,000 new homes are needed per year to replace houses that are destroyed by fires and natural disasters or that wear out from neglect or old age. Demand for second homes combined with other miscellaneous factors accounts for 50,000 to 100,000 new houses a year.

Household growth typically requires 1.3 million to 1.4 million units.

Two major sources of household formation — immigration and marriage — remain well below the averages of recent years.

The National Center for Health Statistics reports that the number of marriages per thousand population fell from 8.2 in 2000 to 6.8 in 2009. Divorces per thousand population fell from 4.0 in 2000 to 3.4 in 2009.

During the late 1990s and in the first years of this decade, the housing industry banked on immigration for a good part of its growth.

Between 1990 and 2000, the U.S. population grew by nearly 33 million.In the 1990s, census data show, immigrants accounted for 250,000 household formations a year. Immigrants typically rent for their first few years in this country, housing economists say. Then, after becoming established, they become a major factor in the for-sale marketplace.